Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis Writer

A single-number projection is almost always wrong and lulls leadership into false confidence. This skill builds and explains a range of outcomes: base, upside, and downside scenarios, plus sensitivity to the key variables, so decisions are made with eyes open to what could happen rather than betting on one guess. Planning against a range is how resilient businesses avoid nasty surprises.

1. The base projection and its key assumptions.
2. The variables most worth flexing (the ones with the biggest impact or most uncertainty).
3. Plausible ranges for those variables.
4. The decision the analysis should inform.

1. Establish the base case

Restate the central projection and the assumptions it rests on, as the reference point.

2. Build coherent scenarios, not just number tweaks

Upside and downside scenarios should tell a plausible story (a slower sales ramp with delayed hiring, not just every number nudged independently). Coherent scenarios are more useful than mechanical ones.

3. Run sensitivity on the key drivers

Isolate the variables that move the outcome most and show how the result changes as each flexes. This reveals where the risk actually lives, which is often one or two drivers, not everything.

4. Identify the breakpoints

The values at which the picture changes materially (where cash runs out, where the plan stops working). Breakpoints are what leadership most needs to know.

5. Recommend what to watch and prepare

Which variables to monitor as early signals, and what contingency each scenario implies.

ALWAYS use:

# Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis: [Subject]
## Base case (and its assumptions)
## Scenarios (downside | base | upside, each a coherent story with the key figures)
## Sensitivity (variable | impact on outcome as it flexes)
## Breakpoints (where the picture changes materially)
## What to monitor and contingencies

• Only a base case with no range.
• Incoherent scenarios where numbers move in impossible combinations.
• Flexing everything instead of isolating the drivers that matter.
• No breakpoints, so leadership does not know the danger line.

This analyzes projections the user provides; it is not financial advice or a prediction. Never invent figures or ranges; use the user's inputs and flag assumptions. Scenarios illustrate possibilities, not forecasts.

A downside scenario models a two-quarter-slower sales ramp with matched hiring delays, sensitivity shows the outcome hinges most on close rate, and the breakpoint flags the close rate below which runway falls under six months.