---
name: scenario-sensitivity-analysis-writer
description: Write a scenario and sensitivity analysis showing how outcomes change under different assumptions. Use this skill whenever a user wants to model best and worst cases, run a sensitivity or scenario analysis, stress-test a plan, or says 'what if sales are lower', 'build best and worst case', or 'how sensitive is this to X'. Trigger whenever a single projection needs to become a range of outcomes leadership can plan against.
---

# Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis Writer

## What this does and why it matters
A single-number projection is almost always wrong and lulls leadership into false confidence. This skill builds and explains a range of outcomes: base, upside, and downside scenarios, plus sensitivity to the key variables, so decisions are made with eyes open to what could happen rather than betting on one guess. Planning against a range is how resilient businesses avoid nasty surprises.

## Inputs to gather
1. The base projection and its key assumptions.
2. The variables most worth flexing (the ones with the biggest impact or most uncertainty).
3. Plausible ranges for those variables.
4. The decision the analysis should inform.

## Method

### 1. Establish the base case
Restate the central projection and the assumptions it rests on, as the reference point.

### 2. Build coherent scenarios, not just number tweaks
Upside and downside scenarios should tell a plausible story (a slower sales ramp with delayed hiring, not just every number nudged independently). Coherent scenarios are more useful than mechanical ones.

### 3. Run sensitivity on the key drivers
Isolate the variables that move the outcome most and show how the result changes as each flexes. This reveals where the risk actually lives, which is often one or two drivers, not everything.

### 4. Identify the breakpoints
The values at which the picture changes materially (where cash runs out, where the plan stops working). Breakpoints are what leadership most needs to know.

### 5. Recommend what to watch and prepare
Which variables to monitor as early signals, and what contingency each scenario implies.

## Output format
ALWAYS use:

# Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis: [Subject]
## Base case (and its assumptions)
## Scenarios (downside | base | upside, each a coherent story with the key figures)
## Sensitivity (variable | impact on outcome as it flexes)
## Breakpoints (where the picture changes materially)
## What to monitor and contingencies

## Anti-patterns to avoid
- Only a base case with no range.
- Incoherent scenarios where numbers move in impossible combinations.
- Flexing everything instead of isolating the drivers that matter.
- No breakpoints, so leadership does not know the danger line.

## Guardrails
This analyzes projections the user provides; it is not financial advice or a prediction. Never invent figures or ranges; use the user's inputs and flag assumptions. Scenarios illustrate possibilities, not forecasts.

## Example
A downside scenario models a two-quarter-slower sales ramp with matched hiring delays, sensitivity shows the outcome hinges most on close rate, and the breakpoint flags the close rate below which runway falls under six months.